Analysis of spatial and temporal risk of Peste des Petits Ruminants Virus (PPRV) outbreaks in endemic settings: A scoping review

Mwanandota, Julius Joseph; Mdetele, Daniel; Muunda, Emmanuel; Machuka, Eunice; Okoth, Edward; Paul, George Omondi; Kimera, Sharadhuli; Misinzo, Gerald

doi:10.22092/ari.2025.366385.3246

Analysis of spatial and temporal risk of Peste des Petits Ruminants Virus (PPRV) outbreaks in endemic settings: A scoping review

Articles in Press

Document Type : Review Article

Authors

¹ Box 9254, Dar es salaam

² Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries, P.O Box 2870, Dodoma, Tanzania

³ Old Naivasha Road, near Uthiru

⁴ University of Nairobi

⁵ College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, SUA, P.O. Box 3019, Chuo Kikuu, Morogoro, Tanzania

10.22092/ari.2025.366385.3246

Abstract

Surveillance shows that Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is endemic in both Africa and Asia due to its continuous circulation. Several epidemiological factors work together to support PPR's geographical spread. To investigate the risk of PPR transmission, analytical techniques based on spatial, spatiotemporal, and transmission dynamics have been employed. The risk factors linked to the spatiotemporal distribution and transmission dynamics of PPR at the regional level are extremely poorly understood. This study assessed the risks of Peste des Petit ruminant virus (PPRV) epidemics during a comprehensive evaluation of peer-reviewed literature, highlighting the differences between geographical and spatial-temporal techniques used in endemic zones. Utilizing the PubMed and Google Scholar databases, a scoping literature analysis of PPR research papers that evaluated PPR risks in endemic areas using spatial and spatiotemporal techniques was conducted. Eight papers with a global perspective were chosen from 42, 20 of which were on Asia and 14 on Africa. 35.7% employed spatial autocorrelation, while 61.9% used clustering analysis. Of the research, the majority (71.2%) described temporal trends, whereas 13 publications (30%) used modelling methodologies. Geographic accessibility (n = 19), trade and commerce (n = 17), environment and ecology (n = 12), socioeconomic variables (n = 9), and demography and livestock–wildlife interactions (n = 20) are the five risk factors that were assessed. All the risk factors were related; however, only two papers discussed the transmission dynamics of PPR. Our understanding of PPR outbreaks in endemic environments has improved because of the review, which also encourages evidence-based decision-making to lessen the virus's effects on small ruminant populations. It has been demonstrated that the association of additional risk variables with livestock trade, the primary force behind livestock migration, significantly increases the probability of PPR outbreaks in endemic areas. Since many studies are conducted in Asia rather than Africa, Africa should be considered in future prediction model development to evaluate possible eradication strategies at the national and regional levels.

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